John Ivison: How to keep Trump from crushing Canada — from someone who knows

David MacNaughton has some unsettling news for the Trudeau government that hired him to be Canada’s ambassador in Washington: “This is not 2015, or even 2021.”

Justin Trudeau famously explained on the steps of Rideau Hall why he created a balanced gender cabinet. “Because it’s 2015,” he said. His advisers explained he was articulating a consensus that was already happening but that had not been made explicit.

It has been a long time since the prime minister articulated any kind of consensus, and MacNaughton expressed his concern that the government has to shift gears in the face of President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose 25-per-cent tariffs on all Canada’s exports to the U.S.

“We’ve got to get our heads removed from whatever parts of our body they’re in. This is an existential threat,” MacNaughton said. “We are going through an industrial revolution globally that will mean substantial changes in trading patterns and historical alliances. If we think we can continue doing what we’re doing, we’re going to find out we can’t. I’m all in favour of inclusion as long as it’s not inclusive poverty.”

MacNaughton was ambassador during the first Trump administration and proved to be the right man in the right place at the right time: an experienced political operator who could speak the language of business and be the focal point in Washington for Team Canada.

He said in an interview this week that Canadians need to understand that this country cannot win a trade war with the U.S. and so should mute all threats of retaliation.

Trudeau did not make any mention of retaliatory tariffs on Tuesday, unlike Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum, who said her government would hit back with reciprocal duties if Trump followed through.

“We can plan for contingencies in the background,” MacNaughton said.

The former ambassador said the way through the fog of Trump’s tariff threats is to focus on what the president-elect cares most about: defence, security and the prosperity of the United States.

“We need to be doing outreach and talking about what they want to talk about” on Republican-watched platforms like Fox News, he said.

MacNaughton said he was contacted this week by U.S. cable news outlet, Newsmax, based in Palm Beach, Fla., seeking an interview. “I said: ‘Absolutely’. There could have been someone sitting watching in Mar-A-Lago (Trump’s resort and primary residence in Florida).”

He suggested that Trudeau appoint one minister to be the point person with the incoming administration, ending the current confusion, where three or four ministers appear to be competing for the limelight.

On defence, MacNaughton scoffed at the idea that Canada can afford to wait until 2032 to meet its NATO spending obligations. “What are we doing six months from now, 12 months from now?” he said. “How can we step up, particularly in the Arctic? So many things that we could do have a common purpose (with the U.S.).”

He pointed to the collaboration on building icebreakers struck by Canada, the U.S. and Finland last summer. “Can we do more of that?”

On security, MacNaughton said it is in the interests of both countries to stem the flow of fentanyl and illegal migrants. Trump did not offer any targets or suggest any specific actions that would avert tariffs, but the situation on the northern border is not out of control. Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc said on Tuesday that Canada is considering giving the Canada Border Services Agency and the RCMP more resources, including drones and helicopters to police the border.

MacNaughton pointed to areas of mutual benefit that Canada has with the U.S. when it comes to critical-minerals production, agriculture and energy. “What can we do to help build prosperity?” he said.

The U.S. military is already funding mining initiatives in Canada to supply critical minerals for electric vehicle batteries and weapons systems.

“Keystone XL pipeline is another thing.” (Trump has said he wants to revive the project).

“Crude from the oilsands is really important to the Gulf Coast refineries,” said MacNaughton.

There have been suggestions that Canada could even increase its exports to displace heavy Venezuelan imports, which are likely to be subject to scrutiny by the incoming administration.

MacNaughton said Canada has demonstrated good faith with the Americans by matching 100-per-cent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

He said he was in Washington two weeks ago and his U.S. contacts there had taken note of Canada’s move.

While the imposition of tariffs looked like a concession to the White House, it was also a clear win for Canadian autoworkers whose jobs would have been threatened by a flood of cheap Chinese imports.

The secret of surviving Trump’s second administration will be to make the inevitable compromises and concessions as painless as possible, with the hope that they produce a return further down the road.

“It’s not rocket science but will require a degree of discipline, focus and collaboration” with provinces, labour unions and business groups, MacNaughton said.

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